Heating Your Greenhouse in Europe This Winter

[Bern]

Problem is that the media are algorithmically driven to maximise "engagement". Write 10 stories, see which one gets the most view/comments/reaction etc. and then repeat that one only more so. It is not a new thing, newspapers have done it for years. Just that computers make it easier and more likely.

Goebbels did the same thing in Germany, but without computers to help him.  One of his rules was "never allow the public to cool off." So repeating stories is a tactic to keep you vexed. And keeping you vexed is likely to keep you engaged.  And keeping you engaged gives the media better ratings and more advertising revenue.

You've got to know when its time to switch off the TV.

[Bern]

Keynes "Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."

"The best way to rob a bank is to own one." William Crawford, Commissioner of the California Commission on Savings and Loans, introducing his testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives. 1988

"Oops!" John Maynard Keynes

"A control fraud is a company run by a criminal who uses it as a weapon and a shield to defraud others and makes it difficult to detect and punish the fraud. Fraud is theft by deception: one creates and exploits trust to cheat others. Fraud erodes trust. Trust is vital to making markets, societies, polities, and making relationships work, so fraud is particularly pernicious." William K. Black

The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry by William K. Black

"Recounting the investigations he conducted as Director of Litigation for the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, William K. Black fully reveals how Charles Keating and hundreds of other S&L owners took advantage of a weak regulatory environment to perpetrate accounting fraud on a massive scale. He also authoritatively links the S&L crash to the business failures of 2008 and beyond, showing how CEOs then and now are using the same tactics to defeat regulatory restraints and commit the same types of destructive fraud. Black uses the latest advances in criminology and economics to develop a theory of why "control fraud"—looting a company for personal profit—tends to occur in waves that make financial markets deeply inefficient."

I read this book and it was very worthwhile; I recommend it to folks who have the interest and time.

[Bern]

Keynes "...recognized the limits to the rational use of the hedonic calculus in economic decisions." Wow there's a hedonic calculus, feed in a chocolate cup cake, get out a number.

It seems that there is a perennially recurring lie occurring throughout the ages that private vice and public virtue are compatible. This appears to be one of the "big lies" that is continually repeated so that a lot of people believe it even though the evidence conclusively refutes the premise.

It seems that hedonic calculators must use some kind of hedonic calculus.  I'm skeptical about its degree of rationality though.

Chocolate cup cakes, in moderation, are more pleasant and are almost certainly less destructive.

[David Pilling]

In the 2008 episode, those controlling the banks (management) robbed the shareholders. Technically shareholders own the profit, not the business.

Effectively there are not that many banks in the UK, figures from the USA for many 1000s of banks closing in the great depression are impressing.

Politicians often fall victim to errors in their private life reflecting on their public career. The voters do not seem to believe the two can be separated.

In general, can people do good as well as bad (?). I'd say so. Today the trend is to find the worst thing historical figures ever did (by current standards) and use that to cancel them.

By the standards of the future we're all sinners of the worst kind.

When I was a lad, there was a whole fur coat thing. For elderly ladies it was a status symbol. For department stores it was a business. Today it does not exist. All those expensive coats have vanished. Even in photos of the past.

Is it fashion, or is there progress to a kinder world.

Are they sat there in the past condemning people of the future.
 

[Bern]

In general, can people do good as well as bad (?). I'd say so. Today the trend is to find the worst thing historical figures ever did (by current standards) and use that to cancel them.

Exactly. And with this quote it's time to begin to wrap up Professors Wilson and Herrnstein and seque into other topics.  Crime and Human Nature surveyed a vast literature of the science of criminology. Crime has been studied with regard to ethnicity, intelligence, income, employment, educational attainment, upbringing, body size in men, even facial features, as well as many other parameters. In spite of everything known about what causes crime and criminals, they report this amazing fact.

"During the 1960s, one neighborhood in San Francisco had the lowest income, the highest unemployment rate, the highest proportion of families with incomes under $4000 per year, the least educational attainment, the highest tuberculosis rate, and the highest proportion of substandard housing of any area of the city. The neighborhood was called Chinatown. Yet in 1965, there were only five persons of Chinese ancestry committed to prison in the entire state of California." Page 473.

My how things have changed since 1965. What has happened to cause the difference?  The Vietnam war, the 1960s social upheaval, the 24 hour news cycle, managed inflation, massive legal and illegal immigration, money pursued as the supreme good, internecine politics? Probably these and many more factors. But it demonstrates that people living under challenging conditions can live good and decent lives, at least as measured by staying out of jail.

[David Pilling]

A bit bleak, but I wonder if Russia will have less crime after the war. Prisoners are being sent to the front because they don't matter.

[Lee Poulsen]

I feel gardening is a healthy pastime - physical effort is involved. They say it is good for mental health and it sort of feels that way. A bit surprising because there can be a lot of frustration.

I'm not so sure it is always a social thing - maybe if you belong to a gardening club or garden on allotments. People always flee when I approach bearing excess produce.

It's probably the Mycobacterium vaccae in the soil that is infecting us.

Dirt Can Make You Happy

How to Get High on Soil

ChatGPT did a better job at giving a summary of it than it did with Cearanthes:

Mycobacterium vaccae is a type of soil-dwelling bacterium that has been found to have a positive effect on human health. The bacterium has been found to activate immune cells in the body and increase levels of certain neurotransmitters in the brain, such as serotonin and dopamine, which are associated with improved mood and cognitive function.

Studies have shown that exposure to Mycobacterium vaccae can help to reduce symptoms of conditions such as asthma, allergies, and inflammatory bowel disease. Additionally, research has suggested that Mycobacterium vaccae may help to improve learning and memory, as well as reducing anxiety and depression.

It's important to note that Mycobacterium vaccae is not a cure for any medical conditions, and more research is needed to fully understand its effects on human health. However, the evidence so far suggests that exposure to the bacterium can have a positive impact on both physical and mental health.

[Arnold]

So, all those years of me playing in the dirt as a kid had it benefits.

[Bern]

A bit bleak,

Professors Wilson and Herrnstein end on a more hopeful note.  After an exhaustive review of criminology and human nature, they have the following to say about affirming society.

"In the United States, a society whose national government was founded on the understanding that it would take human nature pretty much as it was, relying in large measure on the competitive pursuit of self-interest and individual rights to protect freedom and forswearing the traditional role of government which was, beginning with the ancients, to develop virtue in its citizens." Page 528.

"But we (Wilson and Herrnstein) are also reaffirming the moral order of society and reminding people of what constitutes right conduct, in hopes that this reaffirmation and reminder will help people, especially in families, teach each other about virtue." Page 528.

"A society made up of persons who are purely hedonic calculators is no society at all." Page 528.

I had not realized until reading this book that the US national government had forsworn the role of developing virtue in its citizens, but it is clearly apparent these days, especially with the unremitting mass shootings.  The only government that I can think of that might try to inculcate virtue in its citizens today is Japan.

So virtue, right conduct, and the moral order are our best hopes for a just and decent society.  Sounds like a plan to me, even if we're on our own implementing it.

[David Pilling]

The only government that I can think of that might try to inculcate virtue in its citizens today is Japan.

Kidding... Governments micro-manage their citizens behaviour. I pay my taxes to look after my fellow citizens. I do not make excessive noise. I behave in a civil way to other people. I do not have a vacuum cleaner that is too powerful. I drive on the left hand size of the road... All this virtue, all demanded by the government on pain of imprisonment.

[Bern]

Kidding... Governments micro-manage their citizens behaviour. I pay my taxes to look after my fellow citizens. I do not make excessive noise. I behave in a civil way to other people. I do not have a vacuum cleaner that is too powerful. I drive on the left hand size of the road... All this virtue, all demanded by the government on pain of imprisonment.

David, I think you might be channeling Lysander Spooner from The Constitution of No Authority IV, written around 1870.  And my apologies if this is not the case.

"It is true that the theory of our Constitution is, that all taxes are paid voluntarily; that our government is a mutual insurance company, voluntarily entered into by the people with each other; that each man makes a free and purely voluntary contract with all others who are parties to the Constitution, to pay so much money for so much protection, the same as he does with any other insurance company; and that he is just as free not to be protected, and not to pay any tax, as he is to pay a tax, and be protected.

But this theory of our government is wholly different from the practical fact. The fact is that the government, like a highwayman, says to a man: Your money, or your life. And many, if not most, taxes are paid under the compulsion of that threat.

The government does not, indeed, waylay a man in a lonely place, spring upon him from the road side, and, holding a pistol to his head, proceed to rifle his pockets. But the robbery is none the less a robbery on that account; and it is far more dastardly and shameful.

The highwayman takes solely upon himself the responsibility, danger, and crime of his own act. He does not pretend that he has any rightful claim to your money, or that he intends to use it for your own benefit. He does not pretend to be anything but a robber. He has not acquired impudence enough to profess to be merely a "protector," and that he takes men's money against their will, merely to enable him to "protect" those infatuated travellers, who feel perfectly able to protect themselves, or do not appreciate his peculiar system of protection. He is too sensible a man to make such professions as these. Furthermore, having taken your money, he leaves you, as you wish him to do. He does not persist in following you on the road, against your will; assuming to be your rightful "sovereign," on account of the "protection" he affords you. He does not keep "protecting" you, by commanding you to bow down and serve him; by requiring you to do this, and forbidding you to do that; by robbing you of more money as often as he finds it for his interest or pleasure to do so; and by branding you as a rebel, a traitor, and an enemy to your country, and shooting you down without mercy, if you dispute his authority, or resist his demands. He is too much of a gentleman to be guilty of such impostures, and insults, and villanies as these. In short, he does not, in addition to robbing you, attempt to make you either his dupe or his slave.

The proceedings of those robbers, who call themselves "the government," are directly the opposite of these of the single highwayman."

[David Pilling]

The proceedings of those robbers, who call themselves "the government," are directly the opposite of these of the single highwayman."

Nicely put. As far as I know we don't have quite as big a tradition of distrusting the government here (in England), given the way things are going we may soon develop one 

[Bern]

A massive snowstorm will blanket most of the continental US this Wednesday.  Meanwhile, here in the mid-Atlantic, despite an early false alarm for a harsh winter, it has been unusually warm instead. Temps here this Thursday are predicted to be 81F (21C).  Very strange for this time of year.

[David Pilling]

Good luck to those in the path of the snow.

This thread has been interesting from the point of view of writing down what was expected and comparing with what happened.

The lights did not go out in the UK.
Gas prices in Europe are now as low as 18 months ago.
It's been a warm Winter in Europe.
Gas reserves at a record high for the time of year.
The German ambassador to the UK was boasting on Twitter this week that Germany is now using no Russian oil, coal or gas.

But... I have been out searching for tomatoes today. The weather in Spain and Morocco has been bad. There are none to be had. Foolishly I did not freeze the surplus crop I had last year. We had a similar situation a few years back, so can't really blame the shortage on greenhouses not being heated.

[Bern]

This thread has been interesting from the point of view of writing down what was expected and comparing with what happened.

Exactly.  What had promised to be a very cold winter here has turned out to be one of the warmest on record. Being mindful that we are only two thirds of the way through official winter and that things going forward could change, but the trend seems to indicate that Spring has already arrived.

 

Meanwhile, much of the rest of the USA is experiencing a massive snowstorm.  Many people at the park this morning were wearing shorts and t-shirts.